Evaluating the Effect of Technology Insertion into the National Airspace System
Keywords:
aviation safety, risk analysisAbstract
A Probabilistic Decision Support System (PDSS) is being developed to assist NASA program managers with evaluating new technologies that are intended to lower the fatal aircraft accident rate. This decision support system utilizes the method of case-based reasoning in which case studies of specific accidents are modeled and analyzed.
One such case study is the crash of Air Ontario Flight 1363 which resulted from a loss of control due to ice contamination on the wings. The decision to take-off without deicing was the end result of a complex interaction of causal factors including crew resource management, worsening weather conditions, and organizational issues.
In this research work, accidents such as Air Ontario 1363 are modeled and the reduction in risk from the insertion of appropriate technologies is assessed. A user-friendly interface is being developed to create a software application that is flexible and easy to use.